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L'actualité Workshop on the Nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty of the Center for Non proliferation
Studies Preparing for 2010: Getting the Process
Right Presentation by Ambassador Jean-François
Dobelle
I’m happy to intervene in this well known workshop and to try and bring an input to our future and common task in two months time in Vienna for the first Prepcom of the next NPT review cycle. At the outset, I would like to thank the Center for Non Proliferation Studies of the Monterey Institute of International Studies and in particular Jean du Preez for having invited me to express my views on what can be done during this cycle to ensure a good preparation for the Review Conference of 2010. But before addressing the future, I would like to look back at the past.
I - Departing from 2005 If you allow me and with no intention of impinging on interventions by other speakers, I would like to give my personal assessment of the 2005 Review Conference and remind the context it took place within. Since 2000, dramatic changes of the international strategic context have arisen : 11 September attacks and their consequences; appearance of the most serious crisis of proliferation challenging the Treaty (Iran, DPRK, Libya files); discovery of a clandestine network supplying nuclear goods and technologies. All these events have deeply transformed the international security and created radically new conditions and behaviors. The last review process had to adapt quickly to this new context and therefore constituted more a cycle of transition than the mere follow up of the previous cycle. Nevertheless, during the last cycle, substantive debates could take place, new proposals have been launched (issue of withdrawal, mechanisms for fuel supply assurances…) which remain valid and will contribute to our future discussions. Even if the Conference was not able to agree on a substantive final document, the review process was pursued and nobody opposed the centrality and the relevance of the Treaty. We were able to agree on an agenda (unfortunately too late), on a programme of work and on a procedural report which contain "acquis" that we should build upon during the next cycle. I would say that the review process resisted quite well to the "storm". Thus, 2005 has not been an insignificant step. However, it went far below from our expectations and it’s regrettable that, due to the absence of willingness of some delegations to enter into substantive discussions, we were not able to complete thorough debates and reach a common understanding on the issues at stake, which would have been of benefit for the Treaty. Therefore, 2005 is in a way something uncompleted and it is the point where we should restart from.
II - Prospects for 2007-2010 What are our goals for the next cycle and how to reach them ? 1/ Let’s look first at the foundations : the 1995 Conference, which instituted the strengthened review process, decided that "Review Conferences should look forward as well as back. They should evaluate the results of the period they are reviewing, including the implementation of undertakings of the States Parties under the Treaty, and identify the areas in which, and the means through which, further progress should be sought in the future" (decision 1, parag .7). As to the Preparatory Committees, their purpose is to "consider principles, objectives and ways in order to promote the full implementation of the Treaty, as well as its universality, and to make recommendations thereon to the Review Conference" (decision 1, parag. 4).Therefore, the Prepcom and the RevCon are not aimed at renegotiating the Treaty or changing the nature of existing obligations. The purpose of the review process is to consider the operation of the Treaty, to review the implementation of its provisions and, if necessary, to design tracks to strengthen the regime. 2/ What is the situation of the Treaty vis-à-vis the current international context ? One cannot but recognize that the non-proliferation regime is facing serious challenges. The first challenge is non-compliance : since 2002, we had to deal with the second North-Korean crisis, the Iranian nuclear dossier and, last October, for the first time, a State Party to the Treaty conducted a nuclear test. The second challenge is the increasing demand for energy that will require more civilian cooperations in the nuclear field, which should be proliferation-resistant. That does not mean that we should lose sight of the objectives in disarmament as defined in article VI, nor of the 1995 principles and objectives adopted in this regard. But these objectives should be addressed bearing in mind on the one hand what has already been done and on the other hand what is realistic to try to achieve in this regard - namely the entry into force of the CTBT and the commencement of negotiations of an FMCT at the Conference on Disarmament. These two objectives, while directly linked to implementation of article VI, cannot be achieved within the sole review process but in other frameworks. 3/ In my view, the main objectives of the 2007-2010 cycle are to pursue the adaptation of the regime to the new context and to restore confidence. In this regard, our aim should be to address the challenges and to strengthen the Treaty. The instrument is seriously jeopardized by the Iranian and North-Korean crisis of proliferation and it is more than necessary that States Parties express an unanimous support to the Treaty, after the strong response expressed by the international community (IAEA and Security Council) to these threats to its authority. This should not exclude discussions on all aspects of the Treaty, whose three pillars must be addressed. W hat we need is a new spirit and a new state of mind. But we don’t need new rules of procedure.To my view, procedural arrangements for 2002-2005 remain valid :
4/ To ensure a good preparation of the Review Conference, we should in my view :
Conclusion I have tried to demonstrate that to make progress during this review process, we need not recipes or procedural innovations but rather a constructive spirit, objectivity and realism. Joining in a fair manner our efforts should be our main objective. The NPT is a fundamental and irreplaceable instrument of collective security and international stability. Our future depends on it. Thank you.
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